To Invade or Not to Invade
Not everyone agrees with President Biden’s assessment that an invasion is imminent—and we agree with those critics. It is highly likely that Russia will continue this course of hybrid warfare for the next several weeks to months, but we believe a full-scale invasion is the least likely course of action. We do not think Putin has made up his mind, but he probably knows that Russia has too much to lose if they invade. Kremlin officials will likely continue to escalate to the point of invasion in order to obtain concessions from NATO such as. The Putin regime is determined to limit NATO’s sphere of influence and prevent any hopes of Ukraine ever joining NATO. The alleged Russian-led cyber attacks and presence of malware, the continued buildup of troops, and the upcoming training exercises in Belarus are all part of a well-calculated plan to improve Russia’s standing and internationally.